Monday, October 11, 2010

The Paladino effect

As Republican gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino continues to embarrass himself almost daily, what will be the effect on voters this November?

Basically, Paladino has antagonized moderates, including Republicans, with his Crazy Carl rhetoric, and those voters will either stay home or vote for Democrats who are not associated with Crazy Carl.

Plus Paladino has energized Democratic base voters, in a way that Rick Lazio could not have done.

As a result, Paladino will lose big to Andrew Cuomo. maybe as much as 2-1.

Our U.S. Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand will also win by 20 percent or so.

Attorney general candidate Eric Schneiderman and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli will win by less, against opponents who have tried to distance themselves from Crazy Carl.

The Congressmen representing Rensselaer County will win -- Tonko handily, Murphy by single-digits.

And State Senate and Assembly candidates will also benefit from a major anti-Paladino reaction among the electorate.

Because this election, like every mid-term, is all about turnout, and Paladino's antics will suppress Republican, and increase Democratic, turnout.

3 comments:

  1. Carl is nuts and he is dragging down the whole GOP ticket. Who said there isn't a god?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Turnout does not happen because of what's in the news.

    GOTV makes it happen.

    So, what are you doing to GOTV?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Fred Dicker agrees, saying this morning that Paladino's "boorish, thuggish" style will hurt down-ticket Republicans.

    ReplyDelete